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1 mom that still is trying to understand what is a “news aggregator”. The results are somewhat like a forecast map: Areas highlighted in blue represent clicks, and if there were many clicks in one specific area, it will be coloured yellow, passing by a green-gradient. 11 minutes server downtime. 21,062 unique visitors.
And it really just, kind of, comes from this problem, that in the aggregate, if you get 10,000 coin flips, we can say something spectacular about the quality of our decisions and what we should learn or not learn from them. And you can run green lights and get in accidents. But that’s not the way that our brains process information.
If you want to learn about how to do simple forecasting and trend analysis, please see the official forecast function in Excel post on the Microsoft website, and this handy tutorial on trend lines and forecasting in excel. The above graph shows you the dangers of setting targets on aggregated benchmarking analysis.
Brian Chesky : And also humans are not good at forecasting or creating a mental model around something that's never happened before. At the time it was called the green movement. But I am, in aggregate, really proud, not just of the decisions we made, but of how everyone acted. Eric Ries : Yeah. Humans are not good at this.
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