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What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

Both Sides of the Table

IRRs work really well in a 12-year bull market but VCs have to make money in good markets and bad. For Upfront Ventures, across > 25 years of investing in any given fund 5–8 investments will return more than 80% of all distributions and it’s generally out of 30–40 investments. It’s just math. So it’s about 20%.

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How is the VC Asset Class Doing?

View from Seed

The top quartile has distributed 2.03x (vs. 1.68) and the median fund now has distributed 1.27X (vs. The longer the portfolio maintains the same value without distributing back cash, the worse the fund’s ultimate IRR. Based on that metric, the top quartile fund has now distributed 2.03X after 12 years.

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ESADE Business School Commencement Speech

Steve Blank

Unfortunately as we’ve learned from recent experience, using Return on Net Assets and IRR as proxies for efficiency and execution won’t save a company when their industry encounters creative disruption. For example, Coke added snack foods, which could be distributed through its existing distribution channels.

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10 Reflections After 10 Years of NextView

View from Seed

One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days.

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10 Reflections After 10 Years of NextView

View from Seed

One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days.

IRR 156
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10 Reflections After 10 Years of NextView

View from Seed

One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days.

IRR 136
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IRR is a vanity metric

VC Adventure

I’m observing that IRR is a metric that is becoming an increasing focus in venture, replacing fund return multiple as the key metric of success. I understand the draw of IRR, and – as a fund draws to a close – there’s no question it’s an important metric. Recycling hurts IRR. This is a mistake.

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