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What Does the Post Crash VC Market Look Like?

Both Sides of the Table

IRRs work really well in a 12-year bull market but VCs have to make money in good markets and bad. For Upfront Ventures, across > 25 years of investing in any given fund 5–8 investments will return more than 80% of all distributions and it’s generally out of 30–40 investments. It’s just math. So it’s about 20%.

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How is the VC Asset Class Doing?

View from Seed

The top quartile has distributed 2.03x (vs. 1.68) and the median fund now has distributed 1.27X (vs. The longer the portfolio maintains the same value without distributing back cash, the worse the fund’s ultimate IRR. Based on that metric, the top quartile fund has now distributed 2.03X after 12 years.

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IRR is a vanity metric

VC Adventure

I’m observing that IRR is a metric that is becoming an increasing focus in venture, replacing fund return multiple as the key metric of success. I understand the draw of IRR, and – as a fund draws to a close – there’s no question it’s an important metric. Recycling hurts IRR. This is a mistake.

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Flexible VC, a New Model for Companies Targeting Profitability

David Teten

Flexible VC creates early liquidity which can be either reinvested or distributed to LPs. This causes the cost of capital for Flexible VC, often calculated through IRR (similar to an interest rate), can be higher than that of venture debt or traditional RBI. 20-30% is a common target IRR for investors. Early liquidity.

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Term-sheets and Valuations: Thinking about Negotiations - Startups.

Tim Keane

If you look at the spreadsheet, you will see that the “Required Rate of Return” is expressed as an IRR.   Internal Rates of Return naturally compound, so a 50% IRR is 7.59   (If you plug in an IRR of 58.5%   Internal Rates of Return naturally compound, so a 50% IRR is 7.59 times at 5 years and 11.39

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Resetting venture capital return expectations: is 10x the new 3x?

Version One Ventures

3x the invested capital net of fees over a period of about ten years for a net IRR in the low twenties). Note: TVPI stands for total value of investments net of fees / invested capital; DPI stands for distributions (= cash to LP’s) / invested capital). The chart below shows the numbers as of June 30, 2021. . .

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How Covid-19 Has Impacted VC Portfolios

View from Seed

This may not hurt the ultimate exit value of these companies, but the passage of time will hurt the fund’s ultimate IRR. Unevenly distributed, but broadly optimistic. As you can tell from my first two points, the effects of Covid have been quite unevenly distributed within a VC portfolio. Reshuffling the deck.

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