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At our mid-year offsite our partnership at Upfront Ventures was discussing what the future of venture capital and the startup ecosystem looked like. IRRs work really well in a 12-year bull market but VCs have to make money in good markets and bad. It’s just math. And it WILL be deployed, that’s what investors do. So it’s about 20%.
The top quartile has distributed 2.03x (vs. 1.68) and the median fund now has distributed 1.27X (vs. The longer the portfolio maintains the same value without distributing back cash, the worse the fund’s ultimate IRR. Based on that metric, the top quartile fund has now distributed 2.03X after 12 years.
Startups and angels: Along the way to success. If you look at the spreadsheet, you will see that the “Required Rate of Return” is expressed as an IRR. Internal Rates of Return naturally compound, so a 50% IRR is 7.59 (If you plug in an IRR of 58.5% (If you plug in an IRR of 58.5%
More and more startups are pursuing Revenue-Based VCs , but “RBI” doesn’t fit everyone. Flexible VC creates early liquidity which can be either reinvested or distributed to LPs. 20-30% is a common target IRR for investors. Low; a surprising number of Series A/B startups are missing basic financial reporting mechanisms.
This may not hurt the ultimate exit value of these companies, but the passage of time will hurt the fund’s ultimate IRR. Unevenly distributed, but broadly optimistic. As you can tell from my first two points, the effects of Covid have been quite unevenly distributed within a VC portfolio. Reshuffling the deck.
As Bill points out, many funds are sitting on huge paper gains which translate into large TVPI, MOC, gross IRR, or whatever the current trendy way to measure things are. If you are a founder, an employee in a startup, or an investor in a startup, you have to be playing a long term game. Long term is not a year.
Just look at the disruptive challenges that businesses face today– globalization, China as a manufacturer, China as a consumer, the Internet, and a steady stream of new startups. Perhaps that’s because where established companies might see risks or threats, startups see opportunity. Building Innovation Internally is Hard.
One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days. But I think the generic advice that competition doesn’t matter isn’t true.
One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days. But I think the generic advice that competition doesn’t matter isn’t true.
One industry specific example is the strange fascination among some LPs and GPs around term IRR. Even though everyone knows that VC funds take 10+ years to come to fruition, one often can’t help but benchmark themselves based on IRR in the early days. But I think the generic advice that competition doesn’t matter isn’t true.
In February of last year, Fortune magazine writers Erin Griffith and Dan Primack declared 2015 “ The Age of the Unicorns ” noting — “Fortune counts more than 80 startups that have been valued at $1 billion or more by venture capitalists.” Next came Rolfe Winkler’s deep dive “ Highly Valued Startup Zenefits Runs Into Turbulence. ”
You don't want the "average" fund, because average funds don't do well--just like you don't want to model the average startup, because you might as well draw a big flaming hole in the ground. Distributions can actually be drawn out over an extended period of time, but for the purposes of this exercise, I just kept the fund to 11 years.
No reason to sell winners prematurely just because of original fund length, especially given our LPs are largely cash-on-cash return focused more than IRR. Exceeding our limits on company concentration and recycling – we are aggressive in using early liquidity to get more turns on the dollars rather than distribute.
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