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For the past 10 years, with interest rates near zero, VC investors plowed record amounts into tech startups and enjoyed a seemingly ‘easy’ investing environment. Prices went up from round to round, and startups were encouraged to grow, grow, grow, and not to worry about profitability. Luck favours the bold!
2 preamble issues having read the comments on TC today: 1: I know that the prices of startup companies is much great in Silicon Valley than in smaller towns / less tech focused areas in the US and the US prices higher than many foreign markets. This article originally appeared on TechCrunch. I acknowledged this in the article. Increase price.
The A round was done in February 2000 (end of the bull market) and my B round was done in April 2001 (bear market). As a result I had to do a downround. Downrounds are psychologically really difficult on companies and can make it harder to do later rounds. I eventually needed more money.
Responses ranged from, “hey, they’re in a HUGE market&# to “it is an amazing company and their technology rocks.&# It’s like people arguing that there’s a beautiful beach house in 2006 that represents great long-term value due to scarcity of similar property. New investors hate downrounds.
Carta reports that 20% of the rounds in 2023 were downrounds, but I believe the actual number is much higher. For that and other reasons (like cash preservation) VCs moved to focus more on earlier stage, and many funds that typically invest in A started deploying more into seed rounds.
And if you raise the “5 on 20” and don’t grow into your next-round valuation you’re stuck because venture investors HATE doing downrounds. The data suggests that the investors have a much easier time hitting a $100–200 million outcome than a $400–500 million outcome so it’s easier to commit at lower prices.
I’ve been writing up reviews of this season’s Shark Tank pitches from a silicon valley VCs perspective. This time I’ll break down week four of this season. Doing the research to form your own view of a company’s prospects is called duediligence. BACK 9 DIPS. The entrepreneur was clearly desperate.
Much has changed in the past four months of the technology startup world and how outsiders value the business. Don’t assume that you can “just do a downround” if necessary. Downrounds are corrosive. Optimize for a W more than % dilution in these circumstances. Insiders hate them and fight them.
Venture capitalists have an information advantage – startups are required to be fully transparent about everything before a VC invests in it during weeks if not months of diligence, but prospective employees are limited to just a few questions they ask during a series of interviews with only a few people at the company.
I wassurprised recently when I realized that all the worst problems wefaced in our startup were due not to competitors, but investors.Dealing with competitors was easy by comparison. Angels whove made money in technology are preferable,for two reasons: they understand your situation, and theyre asource of contacts and advice.
In late 2015, many public technology companies saw a significant retrenchment in their share prices primarily as a result of a reduction in valuation multiples. In Q1 of 2016 there were zero VC-backed technology IPOs. Their own ego is also a factor – will a downround signal weakness?
These are good things to think about and companies to study as we move back from consumer to Enterprise in the tech cycle. And so it has always been this kind of trickle-down model for 50 years. So now you have got the rise of this new set of companies that are sort of consumerized technology for businesses.
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