Steve Blank

SEPTEMBER 5, 2018

Tech IPO prices exploded and subsequent trading prices rose to dizzying heights as the stock prices became disconnected from the traditional metrics of revenue and profits. Startups wrote business plans, generated expansive 5-year forecasts and executed (hired, spent and built) to the plan.

Lean 335

Lean Burn Rate Startup IPO 335

VC Cafe

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

For more about forecasting growth in these uncertain times, check out Sequoia’s “ Adapting to Endure ” presentations published in May 2022. ValuatIon should be a function of value, not ego. Kawasaki’s Law of Pre-Money Valuation: for every full-time engineer, add $500,000; for every full-time M.B.A.,

Founder 187

Founder Startup Valuation Pre-Money Valuation 187

Steve Blank

APRIL 1, 2020

Your revenue plans are no longer valid. What’s your monthly cash burn at your new low revenue level? Forecasted recovery date. Sales pipeline/forecast. The CEO should dial through as many of the largest existing customers to get a firsthand understanding of the magnitude of any revenue shortfall. Unemployment %.

South Korea 334

South Korea Salary Business Model China 334

Up and Running

OCTOBER 16, 2019

You don’t need to write a 200-page document, but you will need something to hand to your banker or investor that shows that there’s a market for the problem your business solves and includes your key financial statements and forecasts. . Your business plan is a great place to map how your sales and revenue goals fit with your expense budget.

Business Plan 108

Business Plan Small Business Forecast Balance Sheet 108

Up and Running

OCTOBER 16, 2019

You don’t need to write a 200-page document, but you will need something to hand to your banker or investor that shows that there’s a market for the problem your business solves and includes your key financial statements and forecasts. . Your business plan is a great place to map how your sales and revenue goals fit with your expense budget.

Business Plan 108

Business Plan Small Business Forecast Balance Sheet 108

Startup Professionals Musings

NOVEMBER 26, 2012

Once you have a potential investor excited about your team, your product, and your company, the investor will inevitably ask “What is your company’s valuation?” How much is NewCo worth to investors at this point (pre-money valuation)? This is the most concrete valuation element, usually called the asset approach.

Valuation 270

Valuation Pre-Money Valuation NPV Intellectual Property 270

Berkonomics

NOVEMBER 7, 2024

If you are a going business with a track record of revenues, then the importance of accurate current financial statements cannot be overstated. (If If there is no record of revenues, see the “The Berkus Method” available with any search query for valuing the business before revenues.) Careful about “hockey stick” forecasts.

Hockey Stick 62

Hockey Stick Liquidity Event Valuation Balance Sheet 62

Steve Blank

MARCH 17, 2020

Next, take a look at your actual revenue each month – not forecast, but real revenue coming in each month. Subtract your monthly gross burn rate from your monthly revenue to get your net burn rate. All your assumptions about customers, sales cycle and most importantly, revenue, burn rate and runway are no longer true.

Burn Rate 436

Burn Rate Startup Valuation Sales Cycle 436

YoungUpstarts

OCTOBER 23, 2017

An early example occurred in 2010 when UBS Analyst Neil Currie accessed satellite imagery to monitor activity in Walmart parking lots, running the data thru a mathematical regression to translate it into customer activity for better earnings forecasts. Morgan Stanley predicts that Robo Advisors will manage $6.5

Technical Review 154

Technical Review Artificial Inteligence Software Review IPO 154

David Teten

JANUARY 19, 2021

More and more startups are pursuing Revenue-Based VCs , but “RBI” doesn’t fit everyone. Flexible VC 101: Equity Meets Revenue Share. By tying payments to actual revenues, founders and investors remain aligned around the company’s real-time performance, good or bad. Flexible VC: Revenue -based. Of the Inc.

Cofounder 78

Cofounder Technical Review Equity Dividend 78

Startup Professionals Musings

MARCH 13, 2020

In that context, I offer the following financial projection strategies, from my own experience: Forecast a business that has plenty of room to grow quickly. Find some credible opportunity statistics that can support your own revenue expectations of between $20 million and $100 million in the fifth year.

Liquidity Event 308

Liquidity Event Forecast Exit Strategy Bootstrapping 308

Startup Professionals Musings

SEPTEMBER 6, 2010

Once you have a potential investor excited about your team, your product, and your company, the investor will inevitably ask “What is your company’s valuation?” How much is NewCo worth to investors at this point (pre-money valuation)? This is the most concrete valuation element, usually called the asset approach.

Valuation 234

Valuation Pre-Money Valuation NPV Startup 234

Gust

NOVEMBER 18, 2012

Once you have a potential investor excited about your team, your product, and your company, the investor will inevitably ask “What is your company’s valuation?” How much is NewCo worth to investors at this point (pre-money valuation)? This is the most concrete valuation element, usually called the asset approach.

Valuation 187

Valuation Pre-Money Valuation NPV Intellectual Property 187

Tim Keane

JANUARY 12, 2010

Term-sheets and Valuations: Thinking about Negotiations.   I’ve sat down with entrepreneurs and a copy of a term sheet guide I like [ “Term Sheets & Valuations - A Line by Line Look at the Intricacies of Venture Capital Term Sheets & Valuations ” by Alex Wilmerding, Aspatore Press.] The Valuation Question.

Term Sheet 68

Term Sheet Valuation Dividend Liquidation Preference 68

Both Sides of the Table

MAY 19, 2010

Founded in November 2007 in New York City by Alexis Maybank and Kevin Ryan (co-founder of DoubleClick); CEO is Susan Lyne (ex-CEO Marta Stewart Living Omnimedia) Revenue estimates: $50mm in 2008; $170mm in 2009 (versus budget of $150mm); $450mm forecasted for 2010. Note that these are “gross” revenue numbers. OTHER DEALS: 1.

Partner 240

Partner New York City Cofounder Syndicate 240

The Equity Kicker

DECEMBER 2, 2015

Mahesh Vellanki from Redpoint put up an interesting post yesterday about ecommerce valuations. His major point is that revenue multiples aren’t that high, largely because the market is highly competitive and margins are low – often because of Amazon. revenue multiple because it’s strong on both these metrics.

Forecast 60

Forecast eCommerce Net Present Value Revenue 60

Cracking the Code

FEBRUARY 23, 2011

It would have been easy to explain the difference by changes in the 2010/2011 revenue growth projections but unfortunately that is not the case. In comparison, the overall technology sector growth was projected at 9-10% in early 2010 and this forecast did not change significantly today. revenues while large caps are trading at 6.4x.

Software Review 101

Software Review Technical Review Valuation Europe 101

Hunter Walker

JULY 18, 2022

The ‘valuation multiples’ reset also came with an increase in slope of the curve. Do you understand your cost structure and can you manage to a forecastable growth rate. Your runway is impacted by the absence of projected revenue. A drop in growth rate turns into a drop in valuation multiple.

Valuation 119

Valuation Cap Table Startup Later Stage 119

The Startup Magazine

MARCH 24, 2024

The higher the velocity, the more predictable and scalable the revenue becomes. Here are some key tips to refine lead qualification — Leverage predictive analytics for pipeline forecasting Predictive analytics offers real-time data and forecasts that help in accurate pipeline forecasting.

B2B 127

B2B Forecast Entrepreneur Analytics 127

YoungUpstarts

SEPTEMBER 15, 2018

Startup valuation, under no circumstances, can be described as a simple affair. The pre-money valuation of other startups is based on the following factors. It is important for businesses to be duly evaluated because it’s the valuation of businesses that actually go on to draw investors. Importance of Evaluating your Startup.

Pre-Money Valuation 124

Pre-Money Valuation Valuation Sweat Equity Startup 124

Both Sides of the Table

OCTOBER 1, 2009

Consumer spending is 70% of the economy and will continue to be stretched – We can look all we want at tech innovation, VC funding cycles and hot M&A deals, but ultimately growth and therefore investment must be underpinned by revenue. The IMF just raised its global growth forecast from 2.5%

Technical Review 269

Technical Review Stock Hawaii Early Stage 269

YoungUpstarts

FEBRUARY 14, 2017

Your revenues are declining or you don’t have any revenue at all! Revenues don’t appear overnight; even the greatest success stories had to work hard to start getting traction and growth. Yet if revenues start to decline, or after a few months customers are still leaving you for other solutions, then you may have an issue.

Technical Review 157

Technical Review Architecture Revenue Channel 157

The Next Web

FEBRUARY 27, 2014

One of the questions I get, more often than not, is what is the appropriate valuation of my business. multiple interested investors competing for the deal, and driving up your valuation in the process). Never have an investor think they are the only investor pursuing your business, as that will hurt your valuation.

Valuation 167

Valuation Forecast Seed Stage .Net 167

YoungUpstarts

MAY 17, 2019

But every year thousands of entrepreneurs become millionaires by buying and growing businesses without the startup headaches of venture capitalists, zero revenue, and no business processes. Use the cash forecast in the report to secure better terms on your business loan or lock the owner into seller financing.

Due Diligence 185

Due Diligence Forecast Deal Structure Valuation 185

David Teten

AUGUST 6, 2015

So often I speak with companies that have charged ahead building an ultra-complex daily or weekly model with thousands of assumptions and complex dashboard outputs, when their potential investors simply want a high-level 24 month forecast with 12 months of reconciling historical data.”. HOW TO MAKE YOUR CELLS READABLE.

Balance Sheet 60

Balance Sheet Software Review Forecast Acquisition 60

Rob Go

MAY 26, 2016

I’ve been thinking a little about non-recurring revenue businesses. I’m coming to the belief that these are under-appreciated categories of investment, especially since the gospel of recurring revenue, subscription commerce, and SaaS has been preached in recent years. That is not good. Some categories just are this way.

Revenue 53

Revenue NPV Valuation Forecast 53

Startup Professionals Musings

SEPTEMBER 30, 2011

Once you have a potential investor excited about your team, your product, and your company, the investor will inevitably ask “What is your company’s valuation?” How much is NewCo worth to investors at this point (pre-money valuation)? This is the most concrete valuation element, usually called the asset approach.

Pre-Money Valuation 246

Pre-Money Valuation Valuation NPV Intellectual Property 246

Up and Running

OCTOBER 3, 2018

Set a specific time each month to review it , comparing forecasts to actuals and revising as necessary. Financial Summary: Explain your business model, startup costs, revenues, and liabilities to the company. Sales forecast : Projections of what you think you will sell in a given timeframe (1 to 3 years). Be specific.

El Paso 61

El Paso Business Plan Technical Review Forecast 61

Seeing Both Sides

JULY 21, 2014

As a result, the full revenue for each deal was recognized in that quarter as soon as the software was shipped. This allowed our revenue to skyrocket from $1.8 But the downside to our business model was that we did not have hardly any recurring revenue. . I later came to realize that r ecurring revenue is magic.

Revenue 54

Revenue Valuation Churn Rate Portfolio 54

SoCal CTO

MAY 19, 2010

By way of background for the question, there’s a great post by Bob Aholt, a Pasadena Angel: An Angel Investor’s Thoughts on Valuation. For example, TCA’s evaluation criteria first bullet is: A market opportunity sufficiently large to create a business that can grow to at least $50 million in annual revenues. So get real.

Hockey Stick 205

Hockey Stick NPV IRR Valuation 205

Ben's Blog

AUGUST 17, 2020

OH in South Park, San Francisco (or on Zoom from Big Sky, Montana): “OMG, crazy – that firm just paid 100x revenue to invest in [insert hot startup here] – what could they be thinking?” How valuation multiples work Why did multiples become a shortcut-heuristic for estimating valuations in the first place?

Valuation 36

Valuation Balance Sheet Cofounder Forecast 36

Cracking the Code

MARCH 12, 2010

So, here is the first edition, including the recent Q4 2009 earnings and the updated 2010 forecast. Given the predictability of SaaS GAAP revenues on a quarterly basis, the fact that the 08/09 projections were unchanged is not a surprise. Detailed SaaS Spreadsheet (Valuation and CAC benchmark). SaaS 13 Index Valuation.

Software Review 63

Software Review Technical Review Cloud Europe 63

Both Sides of the Table

MARCH 30, 2016

If you want to see what was on my mind – I started foreshadowing change publicly in October 2015 with a forecast of what I expected in 2016 VC funding markets at a presentation I gave at the annual Cendana VC/LP conference hosted by Michael Kim. CMRR (contracted monthly recurring revenue) grow 100% y/y. Fall turned to winter.

Balance Sheet 150

Balance Sheet Burn Rate Valuation Forecast 150

Start Up Blog

MAY 26, 2022

Imagine if an industry spent $4 to generate $1 in revenue. It really is astonishing: Forecast VOD streaming content spend = $US230 billion Forecast VOD streaming revenue = $US83.4 Tech companies have been getting a free pass for a long time on their valuations. Don’t forget – this is before profit.

Forecast 62

Forecast Viral Stock Curation 62

Berkonomics

MARCH 21, 2019

If you are a going business with a track record of revenues, then the importance of accurate current financial statements cannot be overstated. If there is no record of revenues, see the “The Berkus Method” available with any search query for valuing the business before revenues. Careful about “hockey stick” forecasts.

Hockey Stick 63

Hockey Stick Liquidity Event Valuation Balance Sheet 63

Startup Professionals Musings

AUGUST 13, 2012

Clearly define the customer, channel, and revenue model associated with this solution. In this section, you need to be passionate about revenue, profit, and volume growth. Many people seem to use the social network advertising model for revenue, but forget it assumes at least 100M users and $50M investment. Exit strategy.

Business Plan 283

Business Plan Sweat Equity Exit Strategy Intellectual Property 283

Startup Professionals Musings

FEBRUARY 13, 2016

Justify funding requirements, use of funds and specify a current valuation estimate. What are your forecasts for revenue, expenses and cash flow? Forecasts are evaluated as a level of commitment and a measure of your business savvy. Quantify founder investments, both cash and sweat-equity.

Sweat Equity 120

Sweat Equity Advisory Board Liquidity Event Startup 120