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IRRs work really well in a 12-year bull market but VCs have to make money in good markets and bad. But it will be patiently deployed, waiting for a cohort of founders who aren’t artificially clinging to 2021 valuation metrics. But I thought a better way of thinking about how we manage our portfolios is to think about it as a funnel.
At the time, I spent most of my time describing the metrics themselves and how VCs and their LPs evaluate performance based on these measurements. If you aren’t familiar with these metrics, I recommend reading the original post to get a sense of the numbers that I’ll be reviewing here. So, is this good or bad? LP Constraints.
I’m observing that IRR is a metric that is becoming an increasing focus in venture, replacing fund return multiple as the key metric of success. I understand the draw of IRR, and – as a fund draws to a close – there’s no question it’s an important metric. Recycling hurts IRR.
As two fund managers employing Flexible VC, we think it is a healthy addition to the ecosystem and will yield more predictable and stable healthy returns for investors. Too often, investment structures force the management team to make decisions between misaligned growth and investment (return) objectives. Flexible VC 102: Variations.
Good investors use the valuation discussions to gauge the business savvy of the management team and to understand their ability to appreciate and deal with economic market forces that set values. For individual angels and others investing their own money, this may be more fluid than for someone with responsibility for a managed fund.
The Kauffman Foundation points out several reasons why they choose to keep pouring capital into the industry: the J-curve narrative, VC investment allocation mandates (which should disproportionally benefit large funds), the “relationship business” philosophy, and potentially misleading return metrics (such as IRR).
But the world you lead will be much different from the one your professors knew or your predecessors managed. Yet in the face of all this change, traditional firms continue to embrace a management ethos that values efficiency over innovation. To manage these employees companies create metrics to control, measure and reward execution.
Anything that hints of a down round brings questions about the success metrics that have already been “booked.” As Bill points out, many funds are sitting on huge paper gains which translate into large TVPI, MOC, gross IRR, or whatever the current trendy way to measure things are.
They measure their success on metrics that reflect success in execution, and they reward execution. 20 th century Management Tools for Execution In the 20 th century business schools and consulting firms developed an amazing management stack to assist companies to execute. StageGate Process.
These mutual funds “mark-to-market” every day, and fund managers are compensated periodically on this performance. Anything that hints of a down round brings questions about the success metrics that have already been “booked.” We have already seen examples of founders and management obtaining liquidity in front of investors.
A multiple is a company value divided by a metric. If an investor could have identified Salesforce’s ability to maintain such prolonged growth upfront, invested in its 2004 IPO, and then held on through to today, they could have made ~70x returns: equivalent to ~30% IRRs over a 16 year period. Not too shabby!
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