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Early-stage investors in technology startups are only looking for growth-oriented companies that can achieve an “exit&# someday – either via selling your company to a larger company or via an IPO. Another firm we saw tried to raise $15 million at a $60 million pre-money with similar metrics. Here’s the problem.
Yes, you heard me right – multiple research studies, including from the Kauffman Foundation , have shown that when you remove a follow-on venture capital round from a founder or angel investor-funded company, that expected returns skyrocket. It is driven by the following: • The Best Metric for the Health of a Company is Cash Flow.
Him: But when I raised my first round we didn’t know how to price the company. There were no metrics. How will you price the next round? Your A round? Him: On metrics. In finance they call it “terminal value” but the truth is the price is as arbitrary at your A round as it is at your seed round.
The pressures of lofty paper valuations, massive burn rates (and the subsequent need for more cash), and unprecedented low levels of IPOs and M&A, have created a complex and unique circumstance which many Unicorn CEOs and investors are ill-prepared to navigate. In Q1 of 2016 there were zero VC-backed technology IPOs.
Airbnb was preparing for an IPO right when the pandemic hit, and everything changed in a matter of days. The burden [should] just be that we care; that if we learn something, we improve it, and that we don’t only use single output metrics and its growth at all costs. Obviously, the challenges of 2020 were next level.
Him: But when I raised my first round we didn’t know how to price the company. There were no metrics. How will you price the next round? Your A round? Him: On metrics. In finance they call it “terminal value” but the truth is the price is as arbitrary at your A round as it is at your seed round.
Airbnb was preparing for an IPO right when the pandemic hit, and everything changed in a matter of days. The burden [should] just be that we care; that if we learn something, we improve it, and that we don’t only use single output metrics and its growth at all costs. Obviously, the challenges of 2020 were next level.
And so the other reason that I am very interested in delving deep into this space is that it seems like IPOs like Workday, Palo Alto Networks are sort of — they have metrics and analytics that Wall Street understands, more so than a Facebook; like “We are going to sell X number of this in the next year.”
Some will demonstrate strategically justifiable metrics and have fantastic ‘up round’ exits; others may see liquidation preferences kick in which will negatively impact founders and employees; others may fulfill the adage “IPO is the new downround” , which has been the case for more than half of the public companies on our list.
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