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On a public stock market that is the value that investors place on future free cash flows of the business discounted to today’s date to account for the time value of money. The price of public stocks change instantly in reaction to news that is perceived to affect the future value of that company. Here’s what I mean.
Also, they have a strong belief that any sign of weakness (such as a downround) will have a catastrophic impact on their culture, hiring process, and ability to retain employees. Their own ego is also a factor – will a downround signal weakness?
The second strategy is Value Investing , a strategy which “seeks to maximize returns by finding stocks that are undervalued by the market…Investors assess a stock’s intrinsic value…and compare that value with the stock price. LTV / CAC, revenue growth, etc.)
I made my first investment in the stock market when I was 12 years old. The situation I see time and again is an over-valuation on a markedly smaller-than-anticipated business, revenue numbers not achieved, and then needing to do another raise on a lower valuation (a ‘down-round’). I killed it, everyone did.
Him: But when I raised my first round we didn’t know how to price the company. There were no metrics. How will you price the next round? Your A round? Him: On metrics. In finance they call it “terminal value” but the truth is the price is as arbitrary at your A round as it is at your seed round.
The same thing happened to many Internet stocks. Also, they have a strong belief that any sign of weakness (such as a downround) will have a catastrophic impact on their culture, hiring process, and ability to retain employees. Their own ego is also a factor – will a downround signal weakness?
Him: But when I raised my first round we didn’t know how to price the company. There were no metrics. How will you price the next round? Your A round? Him: On metrics. In finance they call it “terminal value” but the truth is the price is as arbitrary at your A round as it is at your seed round.
The burden [should] just be that we care; that if we learn something, we improve it, and that we don’t only use single output metrics and its growth at all costs. We took nearly 2% of the company’s stock, and we put it aside and we created, it was actually 9.2 And the burden shouldn’t be on us to launch something and magically be good.
And so the other reason that I am very interested in delving deep into this space is that it seems like IPOs like Workday, Palo Alto Networks are sort of — they have metrics and analytics that Wall Street understands, more so than a Facebook; like “We are going to sell X number of this in the next year.” We don’t have to sell our stock.
The burden [should] just be that we care; that if we learn something, we improve it, and that we don’t only use single output metrics and its growth at all costs. We took nearly 2% of the company’s stock, and we put it aside and we created, it was actually 9.2 And the burden shouldn’t be on us to launch something and magically be good.
Some will demonstrate strategically justifiable metrics and have fantastic ‘up round’ exits; others may see liquidation preferences kick in which will negatively impact founders and employees; others may fulfill the adage “IPO is the new downround” , which has been the case for more than half of the public companies on our list.
After a 13 year bull market run, anywhere you look in the stock market these days, it’s mostly RED. The tech companies that have been stock market darlings, breaking new records, are struggling, many missing analysts expectations. Downrounds are coming. Tech is entering a downturn. Justin Kahl, David George , A16Z.
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